The Road Safety Authority (RSA) says it believes it has passed its “peak” with the level of people changing their licences.
It appeared before an Oireachtas Transport Committee to discuss the waiting times for driving tests.
Director of Driver Testing and Licensing at the RSA Declan Naughton says essential workers could be waiting more than 20 weeks for a test.
Mr Naughton said: “There was a number going around in 2019 that there was probably around 70,000 to 80,000 UK and Northern Ireland licence holders resident here, right now we’ve exchanged just over 71,000 and the numbers are falling in terms of intake, that would suggest we have pretty much hit peak exchange.”